As the Republican Party faithful vet Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in the primary election process, there is little question in my mind that they will snub the only man in this group who can actually beat Barack Obama in November.
To win the Presidency in 2012 the Republican Party is going to have convince a large number of independent “middle ground” voters to come over to their side. As Romney, Santorum and Gingrich argue about which of them is the most “conservative”, Ron Paul is characterized as the “odd ball” of the group that no “real Republican” takes seriously.
Middle ground voters do not want the government involved in their personal reproductive decisions, including their decision to possibly have an abortion. They are sick of the war on drugs and consider drug use an addiction and not a crime. They are tired of seeing their friends and family called off to undeclared wars, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan
The Republican Party will not have any of this because they are committed to the Christian right (our own brand of American Ayatollahs) who tie their hands on abortion, the war on drugs, and the military industrial complex. As such, the majority of the “middle ground” voters will gravitate to Obama, despite the fact that they are convinced that federal spending must be slashed.
If the Republicans would nominate Ron Paul, they would get the vast majority of “middle ground” voters. The Christian right could then decide whether relinquishing their influence on birth control and the drug war is worth four more years of Barack Obama and an almost certain economic collapse. I’m betting the Christian right won’t throw down and support Obama. I’m certain that the middle ground independents would enthusiastically choose Ron Paul over Barack Obama. I think Paul could beat Obama by 4-5 points in a Presidential election.
If you don’t think Ron Paul would do well against Obama, you might want to take a look at this link from realclearpolitics.com
The Republicans will nominate either Romney or Gingrich. Romney is a Wall Streeter who supported the tarp program. He wants profits privatized and losses socialized; he’s no advocate of free markets. Gingrich is a Washington insider, boiled over and stale as they come. The economy notwithstanding, I predict that Obama will beat either of these gentlemen by 7 points in the 2012 election. Meanwhile, at least 10 percent of Obama’s vote would have gone to Ron Paul, if only the Republican Party had been wise enough to put him on the ballot.